Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Quietly Forward into the Future

2009, 1000 EV's (Mini-E , Tesla Roadster)
2011, 10,000 EV's, PHEVs (Nissan, Chevy, BMW ActiveE)
2014, 100,000 EV's, PHEVs (Nissan, Chevy, BMW, Tesla, Ford)

How long before we hit a 1,000,000? My guess would be 2017-18.

When Chevy and Nissan release gen 2 cars, sales will skyrocket similar to the Prius gen 2 experience. Tesla will release their gen 3 car, and update the Models S, BMW will have several models, Ford and Honda the same. VW and Toyota get in the game in an earnest way.

We will be in the 150-200 mile range at no premium over a comparable gas car (Tesla Model S is there today) and 80-100 mile range will be lower than the price of a comparable gasoline car. Gas is $5.00+ a gallon. Solar PV is $1.50 a watt. Standard Hybrids are everywhere made by everyone.
Electricity wins.

By 2020 Peder is having dinner with John at a very nice restaurant of Peder's choosing. (C'mon Diesel, I need you in order to win the bet)

No comments:

Post a Comment